Precision. Rigor. Context.
The NFSI is a composite measure of reality...
ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK
Four Pillars of the NFSI
The four pillars of food security that manifest in people, markets, and policy.
30%
PURCHASING POWER DIVERGENCE
Affordability
Measures household capacity to afford a nutritious diet across income levels, states, and seasons.
25%
PHANTOM HARVEST
Availability & Accessibility
Tracks food production, market reach, and whether supply actually reaches those who need it.
25%
SANITATION-MALNUTRITION LINK
Quality & Safety
Assesses dietary diversity, food safety standards, and the WASH conditions that determine nutritional outcomes.
20%
RISK-BUDGET MISMATCH
Sustainability & Adaptation
Evaluates climate resilience, institutional capacity, and long-term food system stability.
Three-Layer Data System
Data ArchitectureOfficial Data
Primary statistical sources for macroeconomic and agricultural baselines.
- •NBS — National Bureau of Statistics
- •NiMet — Nigerian Meteorological Agency
- •CBN — Central Bank of Nigeria
Market Intelligence
Real-time and near-real-time data on commodity prices, trade flows, and fiscal allocation.
- •AgTrade Price Monitor
- •Federal Ministry of Agriculture
- •Budget Office of the Federation
Risk Monitoring
Event-driven data on conflict, climate shocks, and displacement affecting food access.
- •ACLED — Armed Conflict Location & Event Data
- •Satellite crop assessment feeds
- •Humanitarian cluster reports
SCORING SYSTEM
How Scores Are Built
Normalization
All raw indicators are scaled to a 0–100 range, enabling cross-indicator and cross-state comparison on a unified axis.
Qualitative Scoring
Contextual factors assessed on a 0–2 ordinal system where 0 = severe constraint, 1 = moderate, 2 = minimal constraint.
Aggregation
Pillar scores are computed as weighted averages and combined into the NFSI Composite Score using pillar-specific weights.
GRANULARITY
Data at Every Level
The NFSI operates at two levels of geographic resolution — enabling both national strategy and local intervention planning.
36 States + FCT
State Level
Primary scoring unit. Full pillar breakdown with time-series tracking.
774 LGAs
LGA Level
Derived via proxy model from state-level data and available census indicators.
TRANSPARENCY
Known Limitations
We document constraints openly. Rigour includes honesty about what the data cannot tell us.
Data Lag
Some official statistics carry 6–12 month collection delays, which can understate rapidly evolving conditions.
Informal Economy
Nigeria's informal food markets are structurally under-reported, creating systematic blind spots in access metrics.
Conflict Zone Limits
Active conflict in states like Borno and Zamfara restricts direct data collection requiring proxy and satellite estimation.
LGA Proxy Model
Sub-state LGA data is modelled rather than directly surveyed, introducing estimation error at granular levels.
Data Lag
Some official statistics carry 6–12 month collection delays, which can understate rapidly evolving conditions.
Informal Economy
Nigeria's informal food markets are structurally under-reported, creating systematic blind spots in access metrics.
Conflict Zone Limits
Active conflict in states like Borno and Zamfara restricts direct data collection requiring proxy and satellite estimation.
LGA Proxy Model
Sub-state LGA data is modelled rather than directly surveyed, introducing estimation error at granular levels.